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cmkun4cxh0000zcrpz0cm3qvt January 1, 2025

US Politics & Policy 2025

Key political events, elections, appointments, and policy decisions in the United States.

Probability 0.0%
Vol: $30.00 January 27, 2026
Probability 0.0%
Vol: $10.00 January 27, 2026
Probability 2.7%
Vol: $849.49 January 26, 2026
Probability 75.3%
Vol: $561.80 January 26, 2026
Probability 15.1%
Vol: $470.00 January 26, 2026
Probability 0.0%
Vol: $3,034.31 January 26, 2026
Probability 0.0%
Vol: $103.00 January 26, 2026
Probability 0.0%
Vol: $123.29 January 26, 2026
Probability 0.0%
Vol: $321.96 January 26, 2026
Probability 0.0%
Vol: $230.00 January 26, 2026
Probability 74.7%
Vol: $1,208.40 January 26, 2026
General polymarket

This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Probability 47.9%
Vol: $9,039,221.00 January 26, 2026
General polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Probability 0.5%
Vol: $22,022,122.75 January 26, 2026
General polymarket

This is a polymarket on whether the listed club will win the 2025–26 English Premier League. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 English Premier League. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to win the league (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the market will resolve to "No". If the 2025–26 English Premier League season is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be official information from the English Premier League. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Probability 0.1%
Vol: $10,498,154.57 January 26, 2026
General polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Probability 0.7%
Vol: $23,902,975.38 January 26, 2026
General polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Probability 0.8%
Vol: $30,930,755.70 January 26, 2026
General polymarket

This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Probability 0.1%
Vol: $14,216,344.15 January 26, 2026
General polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Probability 0.7%
Vol: $20,452,669.54 January 26, 2026
General polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown. The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).

Probability 78.0%
Vol: $11,263,359.06 January 26, 2026
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